The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its forecast for growth in world merchandise trade volume in 2026 from 1.9% to 3.9%. Published on October 8, the upgrade reflects stronger-than-expected trade in the first half of the year, driven by investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and supply-chain adaptation to disruptions in the Middle East.
AI investment is driving trade
According to the WTO, AI-related goods, including semiconductors, servers and data-centre equipment, have contributed substantially to trade growth. The organisation expects merchandise trade to expand by 4.1% in 2027. However, the gains remain concentrated in certain sectors and economies rather than being evenly distributed across global markets.
What does this mean for Paraguay?
For an open economy reliant on agricultural exports and imports of fuels and capital equipment, the outlook presents opportunities and risks. Stronger trade could support external demand, but higher energy, fertiliser and freight costs can squeeze margins. The AI boom does not automatically translate into greater Paraguayan exports; logistics, connectivity and productive capacity will determine how much the country can benefit.
Radar assessment: the 3.9% figure is a forecast for merchandise trade volume, not global GDP or services trade. The WTO lowered its forecast for services trade growth in 2026 to 3.3% and expects global GDP to grow by 2.6%. Primary source: WTO, Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, October 8, 2026. Cross-checked with Reuters and EFE. This article is not investment advice.
Source: WTO — Global Trade Outlook, October 8, 2026