Economy and foreign exchange · October 12, 2026 · Radar Inversión
The US dollar closed on Friday, October 9 at ₲5,694.47 in Paraguay's central bank (BCP) interbank reference rate, dropping below ₲5,700. This shift matters to importers, exporters, dollar borrowers and investors. It must not be described as the closing rate for Monday, October 12: the BCP had not yet published Monday's reference as this edition was prepared.
How far did the dollar fall?
BCP historical records show ₲5,850.69 per dollar on October 1 and ₲5,694.47 on October 9: a decline of ₲156.22 per dollar, or approximately 2.67% over that interval. Both values are interbank references, not retail currency-exchange quotations.
Commercial bank buying and selling rates may differ substantially from the BCP reference. The tax agency DNIT also publishes exchange rates for its own purposes and these should not be conflated with retail or interbank values.
Importers and exporters face different effects
Companies importing machinery, technology and dollar-denominated inputs could benefit from lower costs in guaraníes. Businesses with revenue in local currency and dollar-denominated debt may also see reduced repayment costs. The actual impact depends on contract dates, hedging arrangements and execution prices.
Exporters paid in dollars while settling wages and services in guaraníes receive less local currency for each dollar sold. Net profitability depends on how many of their inputs are also dollar-priced, as well as on margins, productivity and hedging.
The competitiveness question
A stronger guaraní can lower the local-currency cost of capital goods but squeeze exporters' revenues. The overall effect on competitiveness also depends on trading partners' currencies, shipping costs, product prices and productivity. A weaker dollar does not ensure immediate falls in consumer prices.
What investors should watch next
The next published BCP reference, the corporate bid-ask spread, actual dollar exposure, and the currency denomination of earnings and liabilities will be more useful than speculation about a new exchange-rate floor. Managers can stress-test budgets against alternative FX scenarios.
Radar's assessment: a dollar below ₲5,700 redistributes margin opportunities and risks between importers, exporters and borrowers. The verified reference is October 9's close, not a live October 12 price.
AI-generated conceptual illustration of the dollar and guaraní. It does not depict actual coins or a live market quote.
Sources and method
BCP: official reference rates, October 9; BCP: historical rates; DNIT: tax exchange rates. Percentage change calculated by Radar Inversión from official October 1 and October 9 BCP references.