ECONOMY · FOREIGN EXCHANGE · 5 NOVEMBER 2026 · Radar Inversión
The dollar rose sharply against the guaraní. The BCP reported a cumulative selling rate of G. 6,472.69 in the floating market with non-financial clients at the end of Thursday 5 November, up approximately 4.91% from the previous day’s average. Paraguay’s exchange market was volatile amid a domestic financial crisis, a political transition and international equity selling. Timing alone cannot establish how much any one factor contributed.
Official data
The cumulative selling rate in that market rose from G. 6,169.52 on 4 November to G. 6,472.69 on 5 November, a difference of G. 303.17 per dollar.
Chart · Intraday dollar rates (BCP)
08:30: G. 6,169.52
09:30: G. 6,279.20
10:30: G. 6,314.88
11:30: G. 6,403.25
12:30: G. 6,468.66
13:00 and close: G. 6,472.69
Source: BCP floating market with non-financial clients, spot trades from USD 50,000. The figures are cumulative averages and do not represent retail rates.
Why dollar prices differ
The BCP’s G. 6,388.47 interbank rate uses transactions between banks under its official method. The G. 6,472.69 cumulative rate reflects sales by financial institutions to non-financial clients in trades from USD 50,000. Exchange bureaus quote retail buying and selling prices that vary by operator and time. Each series measures a different market.
Four sources of pressure
The ueno bank resolution could increase preference for liquidity or currency diversification, although flow data are needed to measure it. The transition raises questions about regulatory continuity, economic management and the institutional response. US tech losses and global risk aversion could support dollar demand, but the specific effect in Paraguay is unquantified. Trade, international payments and hedging also shape currency supply and demand.
Who feels the impact
Importers pay more in guaraníes for dollar-invoiced goods and equipment. Exporters receive more guaraníes for dollars, with the net result depending on costs. Dollar borrowers may face higher instalments relative to local-currency income. Consumers could face higher prices if depreciation persists.
What the BCP can do
Bank liquidity, financial supervision and exchange policy serve different functions. Reserves provide room to respond. Intervention alone cannot replace transparent institutions or remove banking risk.
Three scenarios for the coming weeks
Stabilisation would follow payment commitments being met and a predictable transition, easing precautionary demand. Persistent uncertainty could prolong exchange-rate volatility. Further financial incidents or external shocks could increase precautionary dollar purchases. A future rate needs reliable information on flows, liquidity and intervention. Watch deposits, payments, credit and activity alongside exchange prices.
Radar’s analysis
The exchange rate reflects expectations. To judge the broader economy, verify whether financial and institutional predictability is returning.
Analysis update · 6 November 2026
The latest verified official close was Thursday 5 November: G. 6,388.47 interbank and G. 6,472.69 cumulative selling with non-financial clients. The two series use different methods and participants. The latter covers spot trades of at least USD 50,000. A new Friday rate requires corroborated official publication.
On 5 November the BCP announced that the first guarantee payments to ueno bank depositors covered deposits up to G. 10 million, with no debt to the bank and an active account at another bank or finance company. The announcement does not establish universal payment or recovery of confidence.
Separately, the securities supervisor lifted redemption suspensions for BASA’s dollar LP fund on 4 November and BNB PY’s US-dollar fund on 5 November. The decisions apply to those funds and do not establish that market-wide redemptions or outflows have normalised.
Track three separate indicators: dated interbank and client rates with their methods, actual guarantee payments and deposit availability, and documented redemptions and liquidity at each fund. Improvement in one is a partial signal. Dollar prices will also reflect currency supply and demand, trade, expectations and external conditions. Published data cannot support a reliable forecast.
BCP · 05/11 · BCP · 05/11 · BCP · 05/11 · BCP · 05/11 · BCP · 04/11 · BASA · BCP · 05/11 · BNB PY
