Economy · September 21, 2026 · Indicator analysis
Paraguay’s macroeconomic dashboard shows a combination that is relatively unusual in the region: still-strong growth, inflation below the midpoint of the target range, and a reserve position that provides room to respond. For companies and investors, the environment is favorable, but it should not be confused with an absence of risk.
Snapshot as of September 19
- 2026 GDP growth projection: 4.5%.
- Growth recorded in 2025: 6%.
- Year-over-year inflation in August 2026: 1.5%.
- 2026 inflation projection: 3.3%, against a 3.5% target with a ±2 percentage-point tolerance band.
- Monetary Policy Rate: 5.50%.
- Interbank rate as of September 17: 5.37%.
- Net international reserves as of September 4: USD 11.5305 billion.
- Bank delinquency: 2.58%; finance-company delinquency: 7.84%.
These figures, published by the Central Bank of Paraguay, describe aggregate stability. Inflation of 1.5% is below the annual projection, while the policy rate remains at 5.50%. The proximity between the interbank rate and the policy rate indicates that the monetary signal is being transmitted to the short-term market.
Growth: normal moderation, not deterioration
Moving from 6% growth in 2025 to a 4.5% projection in 2026 represents moderation, but still implies significant expansion. To assess its quality, it is necessary to examine which sectors explain the increase: agriculture, services, construction, industry and consumption do not have the same effects on employment, productivity or investment.
A company should not use 4.5% as an automatic forecast for its sales. Aggregate growth can coexist with stagnant segments, shifts in market share and competitive pressure. The estimate is useful as a reference scenario; investment decisions require sector demand, pricing, payment capacity and regional behavior.
Low inflation: predictability with nuances
Year-over-year inflation of 1.5% supports cost and contract planning. Importers, however, remain exposed to exchange rates, freight and international prices. For a business that buys in dollars and sells in guaraníes, domestic inflation does not capture the full margin risk.
The annual projection of 3.3% suggests that the BCP expects normalization toward levels close to target. This requires scenario analysis rather than extrapolating the August figure.
Credit, liquidity and payment capacity
The 5.50% policy rate is a reference, not the final rate a company will pay. Effective cost depends on term, currency, collateral, borrower risk and product structure. The difference between bank and finance-company delinquency also shows that credit risk is not evenly distributed.
International reserves of more than USD 11.5 billion strengthen the country’s capacity to absorb external shocks, but do not eliminate exchange-rate volatility. Projects with debt or revenues in different currencies should undergo sensitivity testing.
What to watch over the next quarter
- Inflation’s path toward the annual projection.
- Decisions by the Monetary Policy Committee.
- Sector activity measured through IMAEP and business-activity data.
- The exchange rate and its effect on importers and exporters.
- Credit-portfolio quality and financing conditions.
Radar reading: the macroeconomic environment provides a solid base for investment, but country-level stability does not replace analysis of the sector, cash flow or execution capacity of each project.
Scope and sources
Editorial analysis of public information available as of September 21, 2026. It does not constitute an independent forecast or financial recommendation.
Sources consulted: BCP, principal economic variables
Monetary Policy Report, June 2026
Inflation report, August 2026