In perspective · September 23, 2026 · Radar Inversión
Paraguay enters this week with low inflation, firm growth expectations, a stable policy rate and an exchange rate that has moderated relative to earlier forecasts. For companies and investors, the relevant picture comes from reading prices, activity, the dollar, credit, trade and capital markets together.
Contained inflation
The Central Bank of Paraguay reported year-on-year inflation of 1.5% in August and accumulated inflation of 1.8% for the year. Core inflation stood at 1.3% year on year. The September expectations survey places end-2026 inflation at 3.0% and the twelve-month expectation at 3.5%.
Stable policy rate
BCP expectations point to a 5.50% monetary policy rate in September, October and at the end of 2026. Financing costs therefore remain a key variable for expansion, inventory and investment decisions. In capital markets, a stable policy benchmark helps investors compare rates, maturities and risk premiums across new issues.
Less pressure on the dollar
The September median expectation stood at PYG 5,947 per US dollar, below the PYG 6,015 forecast one month earlier for this period. The survey expects PYG 6,000 in October and PYG 6,100 at the end of 2026.
Growth and trade support activity
The September survey raised the 2026 GDP growth expectation to 4.5%. Through August, total exports reached USD 14.0253 billion, 24.7% above the same period of 2025. Imports totaled USD 13.3084 billion and maquila exports reached USD 1.0123 billion, up 30.2% year on year.
What to watch this week
- USD/PYG behavior relative to market expectations.
- New BCP signals on inflation and the policy rate.
- New issues, rates and maturities in Paraguay’s securities market.
- Foreign trade and maquila performance.
- Activity indicators that show whether growth remains broad-based.
Radar reading: Paraguay’s macroeconomic backdrop remains constructive, but the opportunity is not in the headline story alone. It lies in identifying which sectors can convert stability, demand, credit and exports into sustainable cash flow.
Sources
BCP — Inflation Report, August 2026
BCP — Economic Variables Expectations Survey, September 2026
BCP — Foreign Trade Report, August 2026
Editorial analysis. This is not investment advice.